The American food supply is one of the most abundant and diverse in the world, but even this robust system faces occasional challenges. Despite being part of the world’s largest economy, consumers sometimes encounter empty shelves in certain grocery departments—just ask anyone who recently tried to buy eggs at Trader Joe's.
Several factors contribute to shortages of specific food items, and looking ahead, there are reasons for concern. Climate change, foodborne illnesses, and anticipated shifts in U.S. immigration and trade policies could all have ripple effects on the availability of certain products in the coming year.
Although widespread food scarcity is unlikely, shoppers can reasonably expect product shortages across several categories in the new year.
"Smaller-scale shortages are likely, driven by factors such as outbreaks, climate change, and stricter immigration policies," says Tejas Bhatt, founder and CEO of the digital food safety consultancy AdvanTejas and a member of the Institute of Food Technologists. Bhatt also tells Eat This, Not That! that "the expected rise in food costs will make food less accessible, increasing the risk of food insecurity in certain areas of the country."
In 2025, shoppers may notice a decline in the availability of fresh produce on store shelves due to several factors. One major concern is the reliance on migrant labor for harvesting and packing crops. This workforce could be at risk following the recent U.S. presidential election. President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to impose stricter immigration policies and initiate mass deportations of undocumented migrants after taking office in January.
"If immigration policies become stricter to the point where farmworkers are harder to find or hire, this could result in shortages," explains Tejas Bhatt, founder of AdvanTejas and member of the Institute of Food Technologists. Berries and apples are just two examples of produce heavily reliant on migrant labor.
Climate change is another significant factor contributing to potential food shortages. Extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts, can disrupt growing seasons and reduce crop yields. For instance, droughts could limit water-intensive crops like almonds, while excessive rainfall could damage corn and soybean harvests or degrade water quality in farming regions.
Changes in U.S. trade policy could also affect the food supply. President-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs—25% on all imports from Mexico and Canada and 10% on imports from China—may increase grocery prices and reduce the availability of some items.
"Tariffs indirectly contribute to shortages by driving up prices, which lowers demand, ultimately leading to a reduction in supply—a cyclical effect that could create eventual shortages," Bhatt explains.
Certain food items are particularly vulnerable due to their origins. According to Trading Economics, the U.S. imports fish, crustaceans, and vegetable fats and oils from China. From Mexico, common imports include cereals and processed fruits and nuts, while Canada supplies cereals, flour, and alcoholic products, as noted by the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security.
Global events, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are disrupting food supply chains and could exacerbate potential shortages. “It can create a domino effect, leading to shortages of foods historically imported from those regions,” explains Tejas Bhatt, founder of AdvanTejas. “For instance, the war in Ukraine has caused a shock in the fertilizer market, indirectly impacting crop production in America.”
Domestically, food recalls and outbreaks also contribute to temporary shortages. In 2024, foodborne disease outbreaks, including E. coli and listeria, affected items such as organic walnuts, organic carrots, and onions used in McDonald’s burgers, according to the CDC. Records show E. coli infections climbed to nearly 14,000 cases as of November 2024.
Bhatt emphasizes the challenges these outbreaks pose: “More outbreaks can lead to shortages due to a lack of traceability and transparency. When contamination sources aren’t quickly identified, regulatory agencies often err on the side of caution, issuing broad recalls that remove affected items from shelves.”
Shoppers are increasingly aware of rising food prices alongside these shortages. Fairtrade America reports growing concern about the cost and quality of groceries, particularly commodities like bananas, herbs, spices, nuts, and oils grown in tropical regions facing unpredictable weather patterns.
Meanwhile, a 2024 Food Industry Association report revealed that 70% of shoppers are worried about grocery price hikes. With potential shortages on the horizon, food prices are expected to keep climbing. According to the Institute of Grocery Distribution, food price inflation is projected to rise by nearly 5% in 2025, contributing to a staggering 40% increase over the past five years.